The future of the Saudi Political System in Light of Internal Variables

A. Sharif, Hewa I. Ahmed
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Abstract

Saudi Arabia enjoys a privileged position in the Middle East by virtue of its strategic position, and because of its political, economic and religious factors, as the Saudi political system was established in 1744 in accordance with a political-religious agreement between the Al Saud and the religious institution represented by the Wahhabi da'wa (Salafism), and continued to receive its legitimacy and support from it, tribalism also took an important aspect in maturity, and the expansion of the influence of this country until the oil wealth contributed to its development, and strengthened its relations with the outside world, which in turn casts an important aspect of maturity, and the expansion of the influence of this country until the oil wealth contributed to its development, and strengthened its relations with the outside world, which in turn casts an important aspect of maturity. In the importance of future studies that address topics related to Saudi domestic and external affairs, notably the issue of reform. The reform trends in Saudi Arabia coincided with its opening to the world specifically western countries in the early 1990s, and increased elitist and popular calls for reform, as well as a number of structural causes that reinforced the alliance between the political and religious institution that clearly controlled the social, political and civil life of the Kingdom. This study is concerned with the reform process in the Saudi political system by showing the future scenes of that process, and then relying on internal variables, and the study tries in the framework of its problem to answer a key question: where is the Saudi political system going in light of internal variables. The hypothesis of the study in the context of future studies is based on an optimistic scene that supports the success of the reform process in Saudi Arabia, and another pessimistic scene that believes that the political system in the Kingdom will remain the same, if not turn into a worse state than it is now.
从内部变量看沙特政治制度的未来
沙特阿拉伯由于其战略地位和政治、经济、宗教等因素,在中东地区享有特权地位。1744年,沙特的政治制度是根据沙特王室与萨拉菲派(Wahhabi da’wa,萨拉菲派)为代表的宗教机构之间的政教协议建立的,并继续得到其合法性和支持,部落制度也在成熟中占有重要的地位。这个国家影响力的扩大直到石油财富促进了它的发展,并加强了它与外部世界的关系,这反过来又体现了成熟的一个重要方面,这个国家影响力的扩大直到石油财富促进了它的发展,并加强了它与外部世界的关系,这反过来又体现了成熟的一个重要方面。在未来的研究,解决有关沙特国内和对外事务的主题,特别是改革问题的重要性。沙特阿拉伯的改革趋势与20世纪90年代初对世界特别是西方国家的开放相吻合,精英和民众对改革的呼声越来越高,以及一些结构性原因,这些原因加强了政治和宗教机构之间的联盟,这些机构明显控制着王国的社会、政治和公民生活。本研究关注沙特政治体制的改革过程,通过展示改革过程的未来场景,然后依靠内部变量,并试图在其问题的框架内回答一个关键问题:根据内部变量,沙特政治体制将走向何方。在未来研究的背景下,研究的假设是基于一个乐观的场景,支持沙特阿拉伯改革进程的成功,另一个悲观的场景,认为王国的政治制度将保持不变,如果不变成比现在更糟糕的状态。
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