Modelling GDP for Sudan using ARIMA

Abstract

This paper aims to obtain an appropriate ARIMA model for the Sudan GDP using the Box- Jenkins methodology during the period 1960-2018 the various ARIMA models with different order of autoregressive and moving-average terms were compared. The appropriate model for Sudan is an ARIMA (1,1,1), the results of an in-sample forecast showed that the relative and predicted values were within the range of 5%, and the forecasting effectiveness of this model, its relatively adequate and efficient in modeling the annual GDP of the Sudan.