ADMIRAL: A Data Mining Based Financial Trading System

Abstract

This paper presents a novel framework for predicting stock trends and making financial trading decisions based on a combination of data and text mining techniques. The prediction models of the proposed system are based on the textual content of time-stamped Web documents in addition to traditional numerical time series data, which is also available from the Web. The financial trading system based on the model predictions (ADMIRAL) is using three different trading strategies. In this paper, the ADMIRAL system is simulated and evaluated on real-world series of news stories and stocks data using the C4.5 decision tree induction algorithm. The main performance measures are the predictive accuracy of the induced models and, more importantly, the profitability of each trading strategy using these predictions