The Uncertain Future of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

Laurie Thomas Vass
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Oil payments made to OPEC in US dollar constitute a dual financial relationship. In other words, the oil acts like collateral value for the dollar, while the strength of the US economy acts like collateral value for OPEC countries.In other words, the favored position of the US dollar acting as the global reserve currency was contingent on two initial assumptions made by all other central bankers that the US economy would continue to grow and that the US Federal Reserve System would be circumspect in printing dollars.As long as the US economy had a high rate of growth, OPEC countries had confidence that the US dollar would remain stable in value long enough for the OPEC countries to engage in future transactions using their dollar reserves. And, as long as the US dollar was used for oil payments, the US dollar had the equivalent value of a barrel of oil. Similar in history, but not exactly like, when the dollar value was tied to the value of an ounce of gold.The world’s major central banks are fully aware that in order for the US dollar to remain as the global reserve currency in the international monetary system that the rate of US money creation in the US must be linked to the rate of economic growth in the US.
美元作为全球储备货币的不确定未来
以美元支付给欧佩克的石油构成了一种双重金融关系。换句话说,石油就像美元的抵押品价值,而美国经济的实力就像欧佩克国家的抵押品价值。换句话说,美元作为全球储备货币的有利地位取决于所有其他央行官员最初做出的两个假设:美国经济将继续增长,以及美联储在印刷美元时将保持谨慎。只要美国经济保持高速增长,欧佩克国家就有信心美元将在足够长的时间内保持稳定,以便欧佩克国家使用其美元储备参与未来的交易。而且,只要美元用于石油支付,美元就相当于一桶石油的价值。历史上也有类似的情况,但并不完全相同,当时美元的价值与一盎司黄金的价值挂钩。世界各大央行都充分意识到,为了保持美元在国际货币体系中的全球储备货币地位,美国的货币创造速度必须与美国的经济增长率挂钩。
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