Quasi-subscribers and demand saturation: An analysis of the Swedish mobile phone market

Abstract

This study provides an analysis to explain the emergence of quasi-subscribers - mobile phone subscribers with multiple subscriptions - and discusses its impact on the demand saturation for mobile phone subscription in Sweden. Using a logistic growth model and nonlinear regression based on observations from the year 2002 to 2009, the study estimates that the quasi-subscribers exaggerate the penetration and demand saturation level in the Swedish mobile phone market. This implies that the mobile phone subscriptions will still continue to grow despite the recent high level of penetration rate in Sweden. It also indicates that demand saturation in the mobile phone market should not be forecasted solely on the basis of the number of subscriptions or the number of subscribers. Instead it should be estimated by examining the trend of both, so that the proportion of quasi-subscribers can also be revealed and a better projection of saturation level can be made. Furthermore, future studies are necessary to investigate factors driving the phenomenon of quasi-subscribers as well as to find a suitable business and policy strategy to overcome the potential problems.