Threshold Effect of Remittance Inflows on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria

O. Apanisile, Nwamaka Blessing Oliseyenum
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Abstract

The study examines the threshold effect of remittance inflows and also investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The study selected two macroeconomic variables—output growth and inflation rate. This was done to evaluate the proposition that an economy can experience both the positive and negative effect of remittance inflows over time. The study employs the use of annual secondary data spanning from 1986 to 2019 on variables of interest. Analysis was done using the threshold regression technique, vector error correction and Granger causality. A single threshold value was obtained for both inflation and output models, which led to splitting the models into two separate regimes. The study discovered that remittance inflows in Nigeria are large enough to significantly influence key macroeconomic variables and that private consumption, money supply and interest rate are the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic variables. The study, therefore, concludes that the best way to maximise remittance inflows within the Nigerian economy is to effectively engage inflows in productive investments.
汇款流入对尼日利亚选定宏观经济变量的门槛效应
该研究考察了汇款流入的门槛效应,并调查了汇款影响尼日利亚宏观经济变量的渠道。本研究选取了两个宏观经济变量——产出增长率和通货膨胀率。这样做是为了评估这样一种观点,即随着时间的推移,一个经济体可以经历汇款流入的积极和消极影响。该研究使用了1986年至2019年的年度二级数据,用于感兴趣的变量。采用阈值回归技术、向量误差校正和格兰杰因果关系进行分析。对于通货膨胀和产出模型都获得了一个单一的阈值,这导致将模型划分为两个独立的体系。研究发现,尼日利亚的汇款流入足以显著影响关键的宏观经济变量,而私人消费、货币供应和利率是汇款影响宏观经济变量的渠道。因此,该研究得出的结论是,在尼日利亚经济中使汇款流入最大化的最佳方式是有效地将汇款流入用于生产性投资。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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