Ülke Risk Primi Şokunun Bankacılık Sisteminin Sağlamlığına Etkisi: SVAR Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

In this study covering the period of January 2004-June 2015 for Turkish economy, using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, the effects of sovereign risk premium shocks on banking system soundness are investigated. According to the results of impulse response analyses, against to one standard deviation structural shock in sovereign risk premium; (i) Turkish Lira (TL) depreciates, financial stock prices declines, interbank overnight interest rate goes up, banking system soundness index (BSI) declines and eventually credit-deposit interest rate spread increases. However, (ii) credit-deposit interest rate spread responses to sovereign risk premium shock longer time than other variables do. This evidence exhibits that the balance sheet structure of banking sector is strong against to sovereign risk premium shock and banking sector reflects the negative effects of shock to real economy via increasing credit-deposit interest rate spread. The results of impulse response analysis are supported by the evidences of variance decomposition.