THERMAL REGIME OF THE SMALL ARAL SEA IN CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS

Abstract

The article is focused on the thermal regime of the largest in area and the most important in terms of economic importance of the residual basins of the Aral Sea – the Small Aral. The study is based on numerical experiments using the one-dimensional ocean turbulence model GOTM. Based on data on climatic variability in the study area for the modern and projection periods, three series of numerical experiments were carried out. The first one is modeling the modern thermal regime of the Small Aral Sea under the influence of climate reanalysis, the second and third series are modeling the future variability of the thermal regime of waters under the influence of predictive climate scenarios. According to the obtained model estimates, within the framework of two prognostic scenarios, in the next decade in the Small Aral Sea, a weakening of vertical mixing processes is expected, which will lead to an increase in thermal stratification in summer, which will be accompanied by a significant decrease in near-bottom temperatures relative to the current period and heat accumulation mainly in the upper meters of the water. The corresponding quantitative and qualitative assessments are given. An assessment is made of the influence of possible changes in the level of the reservoir surface on its thermal regime.