Application of Hybrid RBF Neural Network Ensemble Model Based on Wavelet Support Vector Machine Regression in Rainfall Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

In this paper, a novel hybrid Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) ensemble model using Wavelet Support Vector Machine Regression (W-SVR) is developed for rainfall forecasting. In the process of ensemble modeling, the first stage the initial data set is divided into different training sets by used Bagging and Boosting technology. In the second stage, these training sets are input to the different individual RBF-NN models, and then various single RBF-NN predictors are produced based on diversity principle. In the third stage, the Partial Least Square (PLS) technology is used to choosing the appropriate number of neural network ensemble members. In the final stage, W-SVR is used for ensemble of the RBF-NN to prediction purpose. For testing purposes, this study compare the new ensemble model's performance with some existing neural network ensemble approaches in terms of monthly rainfall forecasting on Guangxi, China. Experimental results reveal that the predictions using the proposed approach are consistently better than those obtained using the other methods presented in this study in terms of the same measurements. Those results show that the proposed hybrid ensemble technique provides a promising alternative to rainfall prediction.