Causal Analysis and Resolution with Theory of Constraints: The CARTOC Method

Yure Ouriques Oliveira, Cristina Cerdeiral, Gleison Santos
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Abstract

Several problems can affect software development projects. Less complex problems can be solved punctually, or by applying simple Cause Analysis techniques which typically requires a low analysis effort. Problems of greater complexity, which occasionally affect other projects, are difficult to infer and require more extensive analysis effort possibly using more complex techniques. Also, not all factors that cause a complex problem have the same impact on the problem root cause. Knowing how to properly identify the problem root cause is critical to avoid its recurrence. We present the CARTOC method that structures the process of human reasoning to reduce the bias of those involved with the analysis during the root cause identification phase, validate established cause and effect relationships, and direct treatment of the identified causes. To achieve these objectives, CARTOC uses the Thinking Processes of the Theory of Constraints. We present a case study which produced evidences of CARTOC and Thinking Processes applicability to cause analysis and problem solving.
基于约束理论的因果分析与解决:CARTOC方法
有几个问题会影响软件开发项目。不太复杂的问题可以按时解决,或者通过应用简单的原因分析技术来解决,这通常需要较少的分析工作。更复杂的问题,偶尔会影响到其他项目,很难推断,需要更广泛的分析工作,可能使用更复杂的技术。此外,并非所有导致复杂问题的因素对问题的根本原因都有相同的影响。知道如何正确识别问题的根本原因对于避免问题再次发生至关重要。我们提出了结构化人类推理过程的CARTOC方法,以减少在根本原因识别阶段参与分析的人员的偏见,验证已建立的因果关系,并直接处理已确定的原因。为了实现这些目标,CARTOC使用了约束理论的思维过程。我们提出了一个案例研究,证明了CARTOC和思维过程在原因分析和问题解决中的适用性。
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