Campaign Finance in the Age of Super PACs

Abstract

The United States Supreme Court 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission led to a major de-regulation of election campaign finance law. A new political action committee emerged from this case, known as the Super PAC, with a relatively unfettered ability to raise and spend money in elections. How were campaign spending and electoral outcomes affected? I characterize the influence of Super PACs on U.S. Congressional general and primary elections by estimating an election contest model. I exploit variation in donor finances, background information on candidates, and the dynamic model structure to deal with candidate unobservables. Results indicate that Super PACs do not have significant influence on voting outcomes but did increase election spending between 2010-2016. They affect behavior of other committees, with differences across political party and incumbency status. Finally, Super PACs have modest effects on candidate platforms and entry.