Modeling Production Costs for SWNT Manufacturing Given Uncertain Health and Safety Standards

Abstract

A Monte Carlo cost model was developed to assess production costs of alternate manufacturing processes (HiPco, arc ablation, chemical vapor deposition) for single wall carbon nanotubes, given considerable uncertainty about occupational risk and future potential environmental health and safety (EHS) standards. Various assumptions regarding levels and implementation rates of EHA requirements were modeled as stochastic events and examined for their impact on the production cost expected values, variances, and probability distributions. Preliminary results suggest that in some cases voluntarily adopting higher standards than initially required can lead to lowest expected cost with the least uncertainty.