Bank Credit and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Threshold Panel Model for ASEAN Countries

Sy-Hoa Ho, Jamel Saadaoui
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

While it is widely recognized that the development of a sound financial system may contribute to foster economic growth, the relation between economic growth and financial activities is complex. In this perspective, our contribution investigates the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between economic growth and bank credit. Our sample of ASEAN countries is examined over the period spanning from 1993 to 2019. We use the approach of Kremer et al. (2013) to estimate threshold effects in a dynamic panel where a group of explanatory variables can be endogenous. Our results do not confirm the vanishing effect of finance on economic growth. We found a threshold of 96.5% (significant at the 5% level) for the credit-to-GDP ratio, the threshold variable. In the short run, for observations inferior or equal to the threshold, the positive effect of bank credit expansion on economic growth is around 0.08 (significant at the 1% level). Whereas, for observations superior to the threshold, the positive effect of bank credit expansion on economic growth is around 0.02 (significant at the 1% level). The role of exporting firms is essential in ASEAN countries as they are more export-oriented than other regions in the world economy. Our results may indicate that the beneficiary of the credit (firms versus households), the structural features (export-led growth), and the regional heterogeneity have to be considered in empirical investigations of threshold effects in the relation between economic growth and bank credit. This empirical evidence may help to formulate sound policy recommendations.
银行信贷与经济增长:东盟国家的动态门槛面板模型
虽然人们普遍认识到健全的金融体系的发展可能有助于促进经济增长,但经济增长与金融活动之间的关系是复杂的。从这个角度来看,我们的贡献研究了经济增长与银行信贷关系中存在门槛效应。我们对1993年至2019年期间的东盟国家样本进行了研究。我们使用Kremer等人(2013)的方法来估计动态面板中的阈值效应,其中一组解释变量可以是内生的。我们的研究结果并没有证实金融对经济增长的消失效应。我们发现阈值变量信贷与gdp之比的阈值为96.5%(在5%的水平上显著)。在短期内,对于低于或等于阈值的观测值,银行信贷扩张对经济增长的正向影响在0.08左右(在1%水平下显著)。然而,对于优于阈值的观察结果,银行信贷扩张对经济增长的积极影响约为0.02(在1%水平下显着)。出口公司的作用在东盟国家是必不可少的,因为它们比世界经济中的其他地区更以出口为导向。我们的研究结果可能表明,在对经济增长与银行信贷关系的阈值效应进行实证研究时,必须考虑信贷的受益者(企业与家庭)、结构特征(出口导向型增长)和区域异质性。这一经验证据可能有助于制定合理的政策建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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