Simulation of strategies for containing pandemic influenza

Abstract

We use a stochastic simulation model of pandemic influenza to investigate realistic intervention strategies that can be used in reaction to developing outbreaks. The model is constructed to represent a typical midsized North American city. Our model predicts average illness attack rates and economic costs for various intervention scenarios, e.g., in the case when low-coverage reactive vaccination and limited antiviral use are combined with minimally disruptive social distancing strategies, including short-term closure of individual schools. We find that such combination strategies can be substantially more effective than vaccination alone from epidemiological and economic standpoints.