A Prediction Model of Repairable Spare Parts Utilization Rate Based on Probabilistic Method

Abstract

The relationship between the actual use time of repairable spare parts and the maintenance turnover time of the corresponding faulty parts is established through the analysis of the faulty product maintenance support process and the inventory spare parts operation status. Then, using a probabilistic method to calculate and produce the average spare due in (EDI) of the system within a certain specified period of time. Meanwhile the binomial distribution is used to render the probability distribution function of spare due in (DI) to obtain the time for the spare parts in various status as well as expected backorder (EBO). Finally, an availability modeling of spare part utilization is proposed taking into consideration of the system structure, the number of initial spare parts, the maintenance turnover time and spares shortage. Then, as a conclusion, an example calculation is performed to verify and demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and method as described in this paper.