Mathematical model of the bone biological age based on the bone mineral density and quality indicex and Ukrainian FRAX model

Abstract

Background. It is well-known that with aging there is a loss of bone mass and its strength, which leads to the development of osteoporosis and its complications. The aim of the study was to create a modern mathematical model for determining the biolo­gical age of the bone system, taking into account indices of bone mineral density (BMD) and quality and the FRAX® questionnaire. Materials and methods. 77 women and 44 men aged 30 to 90 years without any significant somatic pathology were included in the study. Patients were divided into 4 age groups: 30–44 years old — young, 45–59 years — mature, 60–74 years — old age and 75–90 years — senile age. We measured the parameters of BMD in the different areas of the skeleton by means of the dual-photon X-ray absorptiometry (DXA, “Prodigy”). The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic and hip fractures was measured using the Ukrainian version of the FRAX®. Statistical analysis was performed in the Statistica 7.0 program (StatSoft Inc., USA). Results. The dependence of the indices of BMD and bone quality, risk of osteoporotic fractures on age and the need for their early determination in young people to predict the risk of osteoporosis and its complications have been proven. The coefficient of determination of the R2 model was 0.62, which indicates that 62 % of the variance of the “Age” can be explained by the predictors included in the model (DXA and FRAX indices); adjusted R2 index was 0.59 (p < 0.001), which indicates high significance of the model. Conclusions. The developed model for estimating the bone biological age has high accuracy and can be used to assess the risk of osteoporosis and its complications in young people for the purpose of predicting the disease.