Modelling the glucose-insulin system of type 2 diabetes patients using ARMAX models

Abstract

This paper investigate the use of ARMAX models to describe the glucose-insulin system of type 2 diabetes patients. The parameters of the ARMAX models are estimated using clinical data of 416 type 2 diabetes patients. A variety of parameter combinations has been investigated and no significant change in fitness values and test statistics were found. Moreover, partially due to the delay parameter no conclusive models were found leading to the conclusion that other aspects (such as non-linearities) has to be taken into account when models of the glucose-insulin system are based on time series.