Fertility in Real Generations of Russian Women: Trends and Regional Differences

Abstract

The subject of the research is fertility trends in real generations of women in Russia. The relevance of the research stems from the fact that the majority of works devoted to the analysis of the fertility trends and the possible impact of demographic policies thereon in Russia are based on the use of calendar birth rates (total, special, age, total coefficient, etc.) subject to timing fluctuations, e.g. earlier childbirth due to favorable circumstances. The influence of this factor can be bypassed by using birth rates for real generations. The purpose of the paper was to analyze the dynamics of generational changes in birth rates and their regional differences. The results of the analysis showed that after a significant reduction in the average number of children born in the generations of women of the 1960s — early 1970s, the value slightly increased for women of the mid- and late 1970s. and would probably be somewhat higher for women born in the 1980s. The proportion of women who gave birth to at least one child is decreasing hampering the increase in the average number of children born in real generations. On the contrary, an increase in the proportion of women who gave birth to the second and third child contributes to this increase. While the share of those who gave birth to the second child among women who gave birth to the first child in the generations of the late 1970s, despite a significant increase, is lower than among women of the mid‑1950s, the proportion of those who gave birth to the third child among women who gave birth to the second child, is higher than in older generations. The increase in the proportion of women in the generations of the late 1970s who gave birth to the second and third children is to some extent due to more active measures for supporting families with children that are largely focused on supporting second and subsequent births of children. If the implementation of measures for supporting families with children in the 1980s helped to smooth out the difference in the average age of the mother who gave birth to the second and first child from 4.53 years in the generation of women born in 1950 up to 3.31 years in the generation of 1963, then in younger women the difference tended to increase and now it is the maximum for women of 1975. (5.91 years). It is concluded that the policy of encouraging child bearing needs to be continued.