Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Hydrogen Leaks from Offshore Rocket Launching Platforms

Abstract

Liquid hydrogen in cryogenic condition can incidentally leak from offshore rocket launching platforms, leading to catastrophic impacts. Risk assessment and management of hydrogen leaks are required to prevent such accidents. The aim of the paper is to develop a methodology for quantitative risk assessment on hydrogen leak hazards from offshore rocket launching platforms during their filling process. A set of credible leak scenarios are chosen using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. The flows of hydrogen leaks for the selected scenarios are simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method. A probabilistic model for predicting hydrogen leaks is established based on the computed results, where a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is used. Individual risks are defined as likelihood of explosion and fire due to hydrogen leaks. As an illustrative example, the developed methodology was applied to a hypothetical offshore rocket launching platform, confirming that the hydrogen leak risk level of the platform meets the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) criteria. Risk mitigation options are also discussed to reduce the risk level.