Application of fuzzy system theory in land use based long term distribution load forecasting

Abstract

Power distribution planning for maximum consumer satisfaction and system efficiency requires an accurate estimate of the load for the different areas in a geographical region. The land use based method of distribution load forecasting considers the causes of electric load growth due to addition of customers in a service area, growth of per capita usage and proposed developments in a given area, etc. This paper presents an application of fuzzy system theory for modelling long term distribution load forecasting. The land use based forecasting method has three major modules, a global model, a spatial model and a load model. For each small area, the spatial model has two scores: land use demand score and land use suitability score. These scores, set in the conventional land use method using rule of thumb, are replaced by a method based on fuzzy set theory.