Dragging Them over the Finish Line

Abstract

Chapter 6 begins the analysis of the effects of partisan electoral interventions on election results through a statistical test, using PEIG, of the four main hypotheses developed in Chapter 2. Full support is found for the first three hypotheses. Partisan electoral interventions are found to increase the vote share of the preferred candidate/party by 3% on average—enough in many cases to determine the result. Overt interventions are found to be more effective than covert ones in both the statistical and the substantive sense. However, unlike in later elections, electoral interventions in founding elections usually harm the aided side, reducing its vote share by 6.7% on average. The chapter concludes by examining whether there are any significant differences in the effectiveness of the specific assistance that is provided by the foreign power and/or the overall magnitude of this aid.