GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

Abstract

This article extends results reported by Bechtel, G. and Bechtel, T. (2021). These previous findings induce the hypothesis confirmed here; namely, that gross domestic product GDP nearly perfectly predicts survival in the world’s entire population. The fractional polynomial regressions here are run over the pre-pandemic period 1991–2016. During the subsequent pandemic, the American Center for Disease Control reported that life expectancy at birth in the USA dropped one year during the first six months of 2020, the largest drop since World War 11. The drops in African and Hispanic life expectancy at birth during this period were 2.7 and 1.9 years (Aljazeera; Democracy Now, February 18, 2021). The USA is the worst covid-19-effected population. It is now imperative to confirm that life expectancy at birth is well predicted from GDP in all nations over 1991–2018. This pre-pandemic control for each nation will accurately calibrate it’s subsequent yearly survival drops due to Covid-19. This is especially important in light of the trade war between the United States and China, which has increased the need for accurate measurement of the human effects of this war.