The Method of Managing Man-generated Risks of Critical Infrastructure Systems Based on Ellipsoidal Evaluation

Abstract

The paper considers one of the possible formulations of the task of planning the operation of controlled complex systems of responsible assignment of critical infrastructure, which arise within the framework of the functional-parametric direction of risk theory.It is shown that on the basis of the proposed recurrent algorithms of minimax assessment (forecast) of the technical state of systems using the idea of ellipsoidal assessment, it is possible to implement a guaranteeing strategy for risk management of threats of loss of functional stability of complex technical systems.It has been proven that it is most expedient to use the developed method when planning the operation of complex systems of critical infrastructure, the failures of which are associated with large material losses or man-made disasters.