Real-time prediction of power system frequency in FNET: A state space approach

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to predict power frequency by applying a state-space model to describe the time-varying nature of power systems. It introduces the Expectation maximization (EM) and prediction error minimization (PEM) algorithms to dynamically estimate the parameters of the model. In this paper, we discuss how the proposed models can be used to ensure the efficiency and reliability of power systems in Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET), if serious frequency fluctuation or measurement failure occur at some nodes; this is achieved without requiring the exact model of complex power systems. Our approach leads to an easy online implementation with high precision and short response time that are key to effective frequency control. We randomly pick a set of frequency data for one power station in FNET and use it to estimate and predict the power frequency based on past measurements. Several computer simulations are provided to evaluate the method. Numerical results showed that the proposed technique could achieve good performance regarding the frequency monitoring with very limited measurement input information.