Fuzzy Approach to Risk-Controlling in Oil and Gas Company Management

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development and improvement of methodology and implementation of riskcontrolling subsystem in the management system of oil and gas companies in under uncertainty conditions. It is proved, that the mathematical tool of Fuzzy Logic allows to reveal and take into account complicated nonlinear dependences between quantitative and qualitative indicators of risk-event probability estimation, and also mutual effect of risk forming factors. The six-level system of evaluation of risks of operating activities of oil and gas companies, based on fuzzy logic has been established. It allows to take into account the non-linear nature of the relationship between the risk forming factors and the resulting indicator. The logical inference model has been designed. It shows the dependence of the risk level on the meaning of linguistic rules about groups of risk forming factors in different risk groups and which is the basis for the risk assessment model. The conceptual model of management of oil and gas companies with the risk-controlling subsystem as a part of it, the main element of which is the fuzzy model of risk assessment and forecasting, has been proposed. The research concluded, that the implementation of the proposed model of management of oil and gas production enterprises will significantly improve the efficiency of the upstream segment enterprises and significantly reduce losses, caused by the occurrence of risk-events. Keywords—controlling, risk, risk-controlling, risk assessment, fuzzy logic, risk-controlling subsystem, oil and gas company, management system