Potential Yield and Climate Change Sensitivity of Groundnut in Cagayan Valley Using Simulation Models

Abstract

This study aimed to determine yield and production constraints of peanut inCagayan Valley using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer; analyze yieldgaps between simulated and actual yield, and provide decision support to optimizeproduction. Simulation results using CSM-CROPGRO sub-model of DSSAT showed thathighest potential yield is 2,267 kgs. / Hectare when planted in October 15 under rainfedcondition. Under non-stressed conditions in the dry season, the potential yield is 4,805 kgs./hectare planted in December 15. From 10 years of yield data, gap between farmer’s yieldcompared with rainfed potential ranges from 153 to 2,116 kgs./ hectare.  Low rates ofnitrogen application and pests and diseases were the factors causing yield gaps.  The DSSATprogram also captured the effect of prolonged drought in the last quarter of 2009 whichresulted to underestimated yield, and the effect of warm weather in 2004 which showedlowering of potential yield by 50%. Regional analysis of peanut yields showed that centraleastern part is more productive for rainfed conditions during the dry season; whereassouthern part including Quirino and Ifugao is more suitable to producing peanut during thewet season due to cooler temperature. Keywords: Agriculture, groundnut, potential and actual yield, simulation, climate change,Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, Philippines