Inflation Persistence: Implications for a Design of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Subject to External Shocks

Abstract

We analyze implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade and risk-premium shocks in a small open economy, under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. We show that the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. We also show that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, supporting the conventional wisdom about the insulation role of flexible exchange rates.