ANALYSIS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND FORECAST ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF FIRST GRADE STUDENTS

Abstract

General secondary education is an important element of the education system of any country and the basis for successful procurement of the next levels of education. The importance of the management analysis based on statistical data is increasing and it makes it possible to establish the dynamics of changes and to identify their factors and typical trends in the general secondary education system as a whole. The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of demographic processes on the formation of the contingent of first-graders and forecast it for the future. The dynamics of the birth rate between 2008 and 2018 are analyzed based on the calculated birth rates by the regions and types of areas (urban and rural settlements). The used statistical methodology for the consistent patterns is based on the principles of comparison, analysis, and synthesis with the use of generalizing indicators. To calculate the projected number of first-graders, factual methods are chosen based on the available information about the forecasting object and its past development, based on which a scientifically substantiated conclusion is achieved about the possible state of the object in the future. Dynamic series of the averaged coefficients of the ratio of the number of first-grade students and the number of births in the corresponding period is constructed. The research is based on the data of statistical forms of reporting on the activities of general secondary education 76-RVC «Consolidated report of day schools of general secondary education» for the period of 2014/2015-2019/2020 and information of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the population and birth rate of children in Ukraine in 2008-2018.