Uncertainty and decision making

Abstract

Knowledge is always incomplete, yet decisions must be made. This seminar explores uncertainty and its relation to decision making, with a particular focus on the ways that science is applied in order to improve decisions. We will explore the many meanings and origins of uncertainty, using theoretical and case-based approaches. A central theme will be the relation among uncertainty, scientific prediction, and decision making, especially in politically charged issues, for example as related to management of the environment. Ultimately, we will want to understand how effective decisions can be made in the face of inevitable uncertainties. The course will be conducted as a seminar, without formal lectures, and with students expected to participate centrally in not just the class discussion but in framing the issues that stimulate discussion. Obviously, then, it is critical that the week's readings all be completed prior to class. In order to facilitate productive discussion, for each class each student must write a brief (300-500 words) synthesis of key issues, problems, and questions raised by the week's readings. These weekly assignments should also strive to identify connections (contradictions, tensions, etc.) between the individual readings for that week, as well as with readings from previous weeks. In addition to the weekly readings and synopsis, students, working in groups of two, will write a research paper on a current dilemma in public affairs characterized by high uncertainty and urgency to take action. More information on the paper is presented below, after the syllabus. A project proposal is due on Sept. 11, annotated bibliography on Sept. 25, draft of the paper on Oct. 30, and the final paper on Dec. 4. Grading for the course will be based on weekly assignments (33%), class participation (33%), and a research paper (33%).