An Integrated Framework for Assessing and Mitigating Risks to Maritime Critical Infrastructure

Abstract

Maritime security poses daunting challenges of protecting thousands of potential targets, fixed and mobile, dispersed across US coasts and waterways. We describe an integrated approach to systematically assessing risks and prospective strategies for mitigating those risks. The maritime security risk analysis model (MSRAM) quantifies maritime risk in terms of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences. We are extending MSRAM with novel "what-if" behavioral simulation software that projects the likely reduction of risks over time from adopting strategies for allocating existing security assets and investing in new security capabilities. Projected outcomes (and costs) can then be compared to identify the most robust strategies for mitigating risk. This decision support method can be re-applied over time as strategies are executed, to re-validate and adjust them in response to changing conditions and terrorist behaviors. This dynamic portfolio-based approach improves confidence, consistency, and quality of risk management decisions. It is extensible beyond the maritime domain to address other critical risk areas in homeland security.