Emerging and disruptive technologies in the Western Balkans: Do we need a new arms control regime?

Abstract

The subject of this paper is to examine the relationship between the emerging and disruptive technologies and the sub-regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans, established by the Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control, signed on June 14, 1996, in Florence. The main research question is: Do the emerging and disruptive technologies that the Western Balkans countries possess or are planning to acquire influence the existing arms control equation in the Western Balkans and, if yes, do we need a new arms control regime? Authors explore this question through the analysis of emerging and disruptive technologies that have taken roots in the Western Balkans and are likely to grow significant in the future, and the sub-regional arms control regime, taking emerging and disruptive technologies as one of the variables that challenges the existing arms control regime in this region. They compare the current emerging and disruptive technologie capacities that Western Balkan states possess, as well as the potential of those emerging and disruptive technologies to disrupt the balance of forces set by the Agreement. The authors conclude that, although we do not need a completely new arms control agreement in the Western Balkans, having in mind the flexibility of the existing one, a responsible approach would include an update of the current arms control regime, especially regarding the new confidence and security building measures, including increased transparency on the acquirement and the nature of potential use of emerging and disruptive technologies.