Reliability evaluation of Bangladesh Power System using cumulant method

Abstract

In recent years, power systems are frequently operating under highly stressed and unpredictable conditions because of not only the market-oriented reform of power systems but also the integration of various renewable energy sources. The uncertain factors resulting from the market constraints and the inherent randomness of renewable energy set higher requirements on the reliability of electric networks. This paper presents the reliability assessment of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using cumulant method. The rationale for using the cumulant method is to take advantage of its computational efficiency. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index ‘LOLP’ is assessed. The simulation results show that the LOLP of BPS is 2.06%.