CAN SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR TURKEY? ANALYSIS WITH PANEL GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Abstract

In recent years, the comparison of the European Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Turkey has come to the fore. It has been discussed whether the organizations can be alternatives to each other, especially for Turkey. In this study, using the panel gravity model approach, Turkey's foreign trade volume with both organizations has been tested to determine whether they can be alternatives to each other. The analysis made covers the 2003-2019 periods. The dependent variable is the foreign trade volume consisting of the sum of Turkey's exports and imports with both organizations. The independent variables are the gross domestic product values representing the economic size of the countries and the "distance variable" representing the distances of the countries from each other. Additionally, a dummy variable is added to the model to represent the economic crisis in Turkey in 2008. According to the analysis results, the economic size of the countries affects foreign trade positively. In contrast, distance and financial crisis dummy variables affect foreign trade negatively. In addition, it has been determined that the increase in the incomes of the European Union countries has a more significant effect on Turkey's total foreign trade volume. As a result, Shanghai Cooperation Organization cannot be an alternative to the European Union for Turkey.