An ARIMA Model for Modeling and Forecasting the Dynamic of Univariate Time Series: The case of Moroccan Inflation Rate

Abstract

The objective of this research paper is to compute the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model ARIMA(p,d,q) to forecast the dynamic of the Moroccan inflation rate. To this end, we have used the Box Jenkins approach on historical information series.Empirical findings revealed that ARIMA’s adapted specification is raised as an ARIMA (0,1,1) since its model provides better forecasting for our target process. This model could be utilized to forecast the future inflation rate. This result can be used by public decision-makers to better adapt their future decisions to the country’s economic situation.