An Airspace Collision Risk Simulator for Safety Assessment

Abstract

Modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of collision risk in an airspace is critical for multiple purposes. First, the model could be used to diagnose the critical points where the level of risk has escalated due to particular airspace configurations and/or events. Second, the model could reveal information on the rate of risk-escalation in an airspace, which could be used as a risk indicator in its own right. The aim of this paper is to present an Airspace Collision Risk Simulator for safety assessment. This is achieved by developing a fast-time simulator with a suitable fidelity for spatial-temporal analysis of collision risk using clustering methods. This simulator integrates the airspace model, flight aerodynamic model and traffic flow model to facilitate the collision risk computations and visualization. The proposed simulator is a first attempt to provide actionable information on the evolution of airspace collision risk for airspace safety assessment, offering practical benefits to the operational air traffic control environment.