A Temporal Risk Assessment Framework for Planning A Future Force Structure

Abstract

Planning future force structures is usually associated with a high, but difficult to quantify, risk factor. Among many other reasons for the importance of this planning process, the defence industry requires the military establishment to communicate their decisions on the capabilities needed in the future. This communication enables the industry to shape their R&D programs and tailor their production plans. Overall, the decision maker needs to anticipate the state(s) of the environment across a relatively long time frame. The process of anticipation is surrounded with many risk factors. Moreover, transforming a force structure is not a single-step process. Intermediate force structures need also to lake into account threats in the medium future. This paper presents a temporal risk assessment methodology for planning future force structure. The methodology relics on constructing a topological structure of interfiled into force structures with transitions based on the proximity of these structures to each other and budget constraints. The path with minimal maximum risk is then identified using a dynamic programming min-max path finder algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated with two simple examples