A novel medium- and long-term load forecasting method based on sensitivity analysis of multi meteorological indicators

Abstract

Traditional power load or electricity forecasting methods have used only limited meteorological information. Specifically, these methods either only select one of maximal, minimal and average temperature as the influencing indicator, or only capture the very basic meteorological information, instead of exploring the nonlinear relationship between temperature and loads in depth. To overcome the shortcomings of the traditional methods, this paper proposes a new medium- and long-term load forecasting method based on sensitivity analysis of multi meteorological indicators. This method constructs the encoder and decoder between weather features and loads. Moreover, this paper combines this method with XGBoost and SVR, which can improve the accuracy of medium- and long-term forecasting algorithm in the power grid field effectively. The simulation results of this synthesized model show that average daily prediction accuracy rate of the year is 95.37% and the average monthly prediction accuracy rate of the year is 98.02%.