Modeling and Predicting Retweeting Dynamics on Microblogging Platforms

Abstract

Popularity prediction on microblogging platforms aims to predict the future popularity of a message based on its retweeting dynamics in the early stages. Existing works mainly focus on exploring effective features for prediction, while ignoring the underlying arrival process of retweets. Also, the effect of user activity variation on the retweeting dynamics in the early stages has been neglected. In this paper, we propose an extended reinforced Poisson process model with time mapping process to model the retweeting dynamics and predict the future popularity. The proposed model explicitly characterizes the process through which a message gain its retweets, by capturing a power-law temporal relaxation function corresponding to the aging in the ability of the message to attract new retweets and an exponential reinforcement mechanism characterizing the "richer-get-richer" phenomenon. Further, we introduce the notation of weibo time and integrate a time mapping process into the proposed model to eliminate the effect of user activity variation. Extensive experiments on two Weibo datasets, with 10K and 18K messages respectively, well demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in popularity prediction.