Modeling Money (M2) Demand in Egypt - A Vector Equilibrium Correction Model

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between real money demand, real income, interest rates and real consumption. The paper provide a mixed strategy for estimating the money demand function that incorporates shifting from a system of equations vector auto regression (VAR) approach that maintains the information relating to the feedback between variables, followed by vector equilibrium correction model (VECM) in order to investigate the nature of short term and long term interaction and finaly an error correction model (ECM) and autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL). The paper concludes that real money demand in Egypt is stable and can be confidently considered by monetary authorities to adjust for long run growth in the real economy.