Frost Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods in Fars Province

Abstract

One of the common hazards and issues in meteorology and agriculture is the problem of frost, chilling or freezing. This event occurs when the minimum ambient temperature falls below a certain value. This phenomenon causes a lot of damage to the country, especially Fars province. Solving this problem requires that, in addition to predicting the minimum temperature, we can provide enough time to implement the necessary measures. Empirical methods have been provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which can predict the minimum temperature, but not in time. In addition to this, we can use machine learning methods to model the minimum temperature. In this study, we have used three methods Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) as deep learning methods, and Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). A customized loss function designed for methods based on deep learning, which can be effective in reducing prediction errors. With methods based on deep learning models, not only do we observe a reduction in RMSE error compared to empirical methods but also have more time to predict minimum temperature. Thus, we can model the minimum temperature for the next 24 hours by having the current 24 hours. With the gradient boosting model (XGBoost) we can keep the prediction time as deep learning and RMSE error reduced. Finally, we experimentally concluded that machine learning methods work better than empirical methods and XGBoost model can have better performance in this problem among other implemented.