Is Japanese Regional Banks’ Overseas Business in Emerging Markets Hopeful?: An Observation through X-means Clustering

Abstract

Abstract Japanese regional banks have actively expanded their overseas business in emerging markets, and this topic is quite important for regional banks that have confronted severe business environments over the decades. An aging population suppresses long-term increases in loan demands, and stagnant economic conditions lead to lowered interest rates in the medium-term. Overseas business is a promising business field for regional banks, but recent developments have not been investigated in detail. This chapter examines overseas investments using data from regional banks’ financial reports. Our sample comprises 44 regional banks without overseas branches, and a research period from FY2011 to FY2015. We demonstrate different overseas business patterns among regional banks. This investigation uses X-means clustering, which is nonhierarchical, as this method automatically presents an optimal number of clusters, and sorts regional banks into their appropriate clusters. The X-means clustering method indicates five business patterns among regional banks. This also characterizes respective clusters and demonstrates that medium-sized banks actively develop security investments, which increases overseas business’s contributions to profits. Meanwhile, small banks cannot expand overseas investments, which differ from other banks. These banks must seek other business models to compensate for this decline in their earning power.