DYNAMIC COEFFICIENT FOR 50 YEARS OF AREA BY CATEGORIES OF THE LAND CADASTER OF THE VOLGA MUNICIPALITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MARIY EL

Abstract

In territorial planning and forecasting in the conditions of Russia, it is necessary to take into account the coefficients of dynamism of the area of all lands and by categories of the cadastre. On the example of the Volzhsky district of the Republic of Mari El, it can be seen that agricultural lands have contradictory three fluctuations, which decrease in amplitude until 2070. The largest number of fluctuations over 50 years occurred for two categories of lands: 3 - industrial lands (9 wavelets), 7 - stock (8 fluctuations). The maxima in modulus of the dynamism coefficient are as follows: Category 1 - 0.0799 in 1992; 2 - 0.0177 in 1976; 3 - 0.2384 in 1998; 4 - 0.0018 in 2000; 5 - 0.2714 in 1992; 6 - 0.0160 in 1999; 7 - 6.4204 in 2020; all lands of the Volzhsky region of the RME - 0.0135 in 1977. The most dynamic are stock lands. For agricultural land since 1970, there has been a constant half-life of 5.09737 years. In Russia, the Soviet system of land use in agriculture was preserved, and it was aimed at increasing dynamism. In this case, the first and third fluctuations are directed against (negative sign) the growth of the dynamism coefficient. Not enough attention is paid to the dynamics of agricultural land. The third wave will slow down: 1970 with a period of 4.7 years, in 2020 - 4.3 years, and according to the forecast by 2070 - 3.9 years. Such an increase in vibration frequency is already dangerous. Wavelets # 1 and # 4 of stock lands dynamism become especially dangerous, as they strongly influence the future. Stock wavelets # 3, # 5-7 are a thing of the past. And the rest of the wavelets will continue after 2020. Therefore, stock lands require special attention