Projected changes in heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century

N. Skarbit, T. Gál, G. Molnár, J. Unger
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Abstract

In this study the changes in the nighttime heat load in Carpathian Basin cities during the 21st century were examined. To quantify the heat load, the tropical night climate index was used. The MUKLIMO_3 local scale climate model was used to describe the urban processes and the land use classes were defined by the local climate zones. The expected change was examined over three periods: the 1981–2010 was taken as reference period using the Carpatclim database and the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods using EURO-CORDEX regional model simulation data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To combine the detailed spatial resolution and the long time series, a downscaling method was applied. Our results show that spectacular changes could be in the number of tropical nights during the 21st century and the increasing effect of the urban landform is obvious. In the near future, a slight increase can be expected in the number of tropical nights, which magnitude varies from city to city and there is no major difference between the scenarios. However, at the end of the century the results of the two scenarios differ: the values can be 15-25 nights in case of RCP4.5 and 30-50 nights in case of RCP8.5. The results show that dwellers could be exposed to high heat load in the future, as the combined effect of climate change and urban climate, thus developing various mitigation and adaptation strategies is crucial.
21世纪喀尔巴阡盆地城市热负荷变化预估
本文研究了21世纪喀尔巴阡盆地城市夜间热负荷的变化。为了量化热负荷,采用了热带夜气候指数。采用MUKLIMO_3局地尺度气候模式描述城市过程,并以局地气候带划分土地利用等级。利用Carpatclim数据库以1981-2010年为参考期,利用EURO-CORDEX区域模式模拟数据对两种情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)的2021-2050年和2071-2100年未来期进行了预测。为了将详细的空间分辨率与长时间序列相结合,采用了降尺度方法。结果表明,21世纪热带夜的数量将发生显著变化,城市地形的增加效应明显。在不久的将来,预计热带夜的数目会有轻微的增加,其幅度因城市而异,在不同的情景之间没有太大的差异。然而,在本世纪末,两种情景的结果不同:RCP4.5的值为15-25晚,RCP8.5的值为30-50晚。结果表明,由于气候变化和城市气候的综合影响,未来居民可能面临高热负荷,因此制定各种缓解和适应策略至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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