{"title":"Predicting the Yield Curve Using Forecast Combinations","authors":"J. Caldeira, G. V. Moura, A. P. Santos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2311733","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"An examination of the statistical accuracy and economic value of modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates using forecast combinations is considered. Five alternative methods to combine point forecasts from several univariate and multivariate autoregressive specifications including dynamic factor models, equilibrium term structure models, and forward rate regression models are used. Moreover, a detailed performance evaluation based not only on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, but also on Sharpe ratios of fixed income portfolios is conducted. An empirical application based on a large panel of Brazilian interest rate future contracts with different maturities shows that combined forecasts consistently outperform individual models in several instances, specially when economic criteria are taken into account.","PeriodicalId":112822,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Interest Rate Forecasts (Topic)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"19","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Interest Rate Forecasts (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2311733","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
Abstract
An examination of the statistical accuracy and economic value of modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates using forecast combinations is considered. Five alternative methods to combine point forecasts from several univariate and multivariate autoregressive specifications including dynamic factor models, equilibrium term structure models, and forward rate regression models are used. Moreover, a detailed performance evaluation based not only on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, but also on Sharpe ratios of fixed income portfolios is conducted. An empirical application based on a large panel of Brazilian interest rate future contracts with different maturities shows that combined forecasts consistently outperform individual models in several instances, specially when economic criteria are taken into account.