Projection of Long-Term Total Factor Productivity Growth for 12 Asian Economies

Abstract

This study reviews and analyzes the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 12 Asian economies – the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; the Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Pakistan; the Philippines; Singapore; Taipei, China; Thailand; and Viet Nam – for the period 1970-2007. By performing an empirical analysis using a comprehensive international data set, the paper investigates the main factors influencing TFP growth based on a modified version of the 2003 empirical growth model of Bosworth and Collins. Special emphasis is placed on intangible factors such as human capital, and research and development capital, in defining the TFP dynamics. The resulting benchmark models from these empirical analyses are used to produce the long-term projection of TFP growth for the Asian economies for the period 2010 through 2030.