Option-Games and Bayesian MCMC Analyses on R&D Investment in Eco-System of New Energy Industry in Myanmar

Abstract

Myanmar is rich in power sources. But with low levels of electrification, demand for power is not adequately met. And it needs advanced technology and more investment in power generation and distribution. Efficient and effective management of energy resources and innovative technology for producing it is inevitable and has become very crucial to solve climate change and meet the increased energy demand in 21st century. Option-games theory and Bayesian MCMC Analysis will be utilized to analyze the optimal investment strategies for high-risky energy industry and find the possibility of raising the firm's revenue in order to endure and overcome the ‘Valley of Death’ in period of negative profit. In more detail, this research will help us in examining a situation of option-games for the assessment of optimizing the firms' equity between flexibility and commitment. And Bayesian MCMC Analysis will be applied to the parameters estimation between the firm's revenue and investment cost in Eco-system for the sustainability of new energy industry. After focusing on the Japan's Electric Power Business and cooperation between Japan and Myanmar, we would like to search the potential of innovative and initiative new technological energy industry for the regional development and ecological sustainability in Myanmar.