An Agent- Based Model on the Potential of a Dipterocarp Forest Fire

Abstract

This study assessed the extent of flammability potential of a dipterocarp forest area considering the parameters on tree density and the probability of spread of fire. Specifically, it aimed to establish a picture on the potential of a dipterocarp forest fire with varied tree densities and probability of spread. The study also aimed to determine if there is a significant effect of tree density and the probability of the spread of forest fire to the percent of area burned, and creates implications for the planning of the intervention strategies for the control and prevention of forest fire. The Fire Simple Extension 1 Netlogo model of the Agent- Based Modeling was used in this study. This simulation system gave information as to the flammability potential of a forest, a dipterocarp forest in this case, taking into account the influence of tree density and probability of spread. The findings of the study revealed that the percent of area burned is dependent on tree density and the probability of spread. On the other hand, the spread of fire has a greater influence on the percent of area burned than the density of trees. If the probability of spread is low, the percent of area burned is constant in both low and high dense areas. With a very low percentage of the spread of fire, the fire will have a negligible effect(less than 2%) on a particular area regardless of tree density. Setting the density lower than 55% in the slider will result in a very minimal destruction of the forest. Data also reveal that a less dense area will have a greater surface area burned compared to a high dense area considering a low spread of fire.