Survivability Model for Security and Dependability Analysis of a Vulnerable Critical System

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze transient security and dependability of a vulnerable critical system, under vulnerability-related attack and two reactive defense strategies, from a severe vulnerability announcement until the vulnerability is fully removed from the system. By severe, we mean that the vulnerability-based malware could cause significant damage to the infected system in terms of security and dependability while infecting more and more new vulnerable computer systems. We propose a Markov chain-based survivability model for capturing the vulnerable critical system behaviors during the vulnerability elimination process. A high-level formalism based on Stochastic Reward Nets is applied to automatically generate and solve the survivability model. Survivability metrics are defined to quantify system attributes. The proposed model and metrics not only enable us to quantitatively assess the system survivability in terms of security risk and dependability, but also provide insights on the system investment decision. Numerical experiments are constructed to study the impact of key parameters on system security, dependability and profit.