Risk assessment in railway traffic planning - assumptions for the method

P. Gołębiowski
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Abstract

Every activity, including within the railway system, is subject to risk, i.e., the possibility of uncertain phenomena that may affect it (both positively and negatively). One of the operational subsystems of the Union Railway System is railway traffic. It consists of four processes - the second is traffic planning. This process is also subject to risk. As it directly relates to traffic safety, conducting research and analyzing the risks involved makes sense. This article aims to develop the assumptions for a risk assessment method in railway traffic planning. This method, once created, will be used to carry out a risk assessment of the indicated process from two points of view: the railway undertaking and the infrastructure manager. As a result of the considerations, it was assumed that risk identification would be performed using the risk description principle from the M_o_R methodology. The risk estimation will be adapted to use a probabilistic risk assessment model. This assessment will be performed using the Monte Carlo simulation method, which is strongly recommended for use by the Office of Railway Transport (the national railway safety body).
铁路交通规划中的风险评估。方法的假设
每一项活动,包括铁路系统内的活动,都面临风险,即可能出现不确定的现象,可能对其产生影响(积极的和消极的)。铁路交通是联合铁路系统的运营子系统之一。它包括四个过程——第二个是交通规划。这个过程也有风险。因为它直接关系到交通安全,所以进行研究和分析所涉及的风险是有意义的。本文旨在建立铁路交通规划风险评估方法的假设。这种方法一旦创建,将用于从两个角度对所指示的过程进行风险评估:铁路企业和基础设施管理者。由于这些考虑,假定将使用M_o_R方法中的风险描述原则进行风险识别。风险估计将适应使用概率风险评估模型。这项评估将使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行,这是铁路运输办公室(国家铁路安全机构)强烈建议使用的方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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