A Unified Theory of Money

Susheng Wang
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Abstract

We propose a model to unify and compare the three most popular monetary mechanisms: the credit theory, quantitative easing (QE), and the helicopter theory. We show different effects of these mechanisms on goods prices and equity prices. We find that, with a monetary expansion, the credit theory implies a deflationary effect on goods but a mixed effect on assets, QE implies a deflationary effect on goods but an inflationary effect on assets, and the helicopter theory implies an inflationary effect on goods but a deflationary effect on assets. Also, the credit theory implies an economic upturn in the short run but an economic downturn in the long run, QE implies an economic downturn in both the short run and the long run, and the helicopter theory implies an economic upturn in both the short run and the long run. We further identify a negative relationship between goods inflation and asset inflation, called the goods-asset curve, just like the Phillips curve.
统一货币理论
我们提出了一个模型来统一和比较三种最流行的货币机制:信贷理论、量化宽松(QE)和直升机理论。我们展示了这些机制对商品价格和股票价格的不同影响。我们发现,在货币扩张的情况下,信贷理论意味着对商品的通货紧缩效应,但对资产的混合效应;量化宽松意味着对商品的通货紧缩效应,但对资产的通货膨胀效应;直升机理论意味着对商品的通货膨胀效应,但对资产的通货紧缩效应。此外,信贷理论暗示经济在短期内会好转,但在长期内会衰退;量化宽松政策暗示经济在短期和长期都会衰退;直升机理论暗示经济在短期和长期都会好转。我们进一步确定了商品通胀和资产通胀之间的负相关关系,称为商品-资产曲线,就像菲利普斯曲线一样。
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